Mega-deals and long-term health don't always coincide

In their short history of the Miami Marlins, the franchise has generated quite a reputation for penny-pinching. Only twice in the past 15 years has their opening day payroll been outside of the bottom 10.

Since their inception in 1993, the cycle has mostly been the same: disappoint, suck, develop young prospects, win sneaky World Series, sell off young prospects, disappoint, suck...

While this must be excruciating for their fans (who have had to reluctantly wave goodbye to promising young stars like Kevin Brown, Josh Beckett, Derrek Lee, Hanley Ramirez, and most recently, Miguel Cabrera), one could argue that the Marlins have been playing money ball since before money ball became a thing–they pinched pennies and won championships, even if it irked their fans.

This winter, however, Owner Jeffrey Loria decided it was time for a course change. They announced earlier this week that they inked a record $325 million deal with Giancarlo Stanton.

With their controversial (see below) and very back-loaded deal the Marlins are setting themselves up to pay a future 37-year-old Stanton over $30 million per year.

The big question for us at ISM: is this a worthwhile investment, given what we know about sports medicine? I crunched some numbers to how mega-deals like Stanton’s tend to play out in terms of long-term health and contribution to the team relative to the size of their contract to help figure that out.

 

Player Contract (in millions) Years Games played per year Total WAR Millions/WAR
Derek Jeter $189/10 years 2001-10 152 41 4.6
Manny Ramirez $160/8 years 2001-08 142 36.7 4.35
Joe Mauer $184/8 years 2011-18 116 13.2 6.96
Mark Teixeira $180/8 years 2009-16 122 17.4 7.76
C.C. Sabathia $161/7 years 2009-15 28 21.5 6.4
Alex Rodriguez $252/10 years 2001-08 159 47 5.36
Alex Rodriguez $275/10 years (restructured) 2008-17 95 21.6 8.8
Miguel Cabrera $152/8 years 2008-15 157 41.2 3.22
Alfonso Soriano $136/7 years 2007-14 127 8 17
Barry Zito $126/7 years 2007-13 28.1 3 42

 

So what can the Marlins learn from the chart above?

Well, for one, they traded away the arguably best mega-deal of the millenium in Miguel Cabrera for pennies on the dollar, who restructured his contract for the long-term when he landed in Detroit and has contributed 41.2 wins above replacement and missed only a handful of games.

The trend for power hitters has not been great. For every Miguel Cabrera or Manny Ramirez ($4.35 million/WAR), there is a Mark Teixeira ($7.76 million/WAR) or an Alfonso Soriano ($17 million/WAR).

Pitchers (given the very, very limited sample size) seem to be an even less trustworthy investment. Barry Zito was paid a whopping $42 million/WAR, but went 3-0 in the Giants 2012 World Series quest.

The bottom line: despite the wealth of knowledge sports medicine practicioners have, it is nearly impossible to predict a player’s health from week to week, much less over the course of 6, 9, or 12 years.

Mark Teixeira was a stallion when the Yankees signed him long-term in 2009, but a series of unpredictable injuries have sidelined him for over 200 games in the last three years.

If anyone can do it, Stanton seems fit to buck the trend. Let’s all hope that’s the case and Loria will once again bust out the ol’ checkbook to build a winner.